Commentary: Why many Taiwanese are unfazed by China’s show of military might
CANBERRA: China has been flying a record number of military aircrafts into Taiwan'south "air defence identification zone" in recent days, heightening regional concerns virtually the risk of military machine escalation or even an outright war.
Taiwanese people are largely warning, merely not alarmed. And so, why are they not losing their minds over what seems to be intensifying drums of war?
It comes downward to familiarity with China'southward pattern of armed services pressure tactics, every bit well as a general warning fatigue from decades of exposure.
Many Taiwanese see the Chinese armed forces brandish as more of a show than a preparation for an all-out invasion. There are several reasons beingness China's prove of strength in recent days, pointing to brusque- and medium-term goals.
Domestically, the military pressure serves Chinese President 11 Jinping's political agenda. Xi's defining political idea is promoting the "Chinese Dream" to his people, which partly entails condign "a strong nation with a strong army".
China had just had its national mean solar day celebration on Oct i, and a public testify of strength is a visual embodiment of that narrative. Nationalist paper Global Times even went and then far as to call the flying incursions a grade of national day "military parade".
Moreover, the Chinese Communist Party is at a central period in terms of its leadership reshuffle. Next month, information technology will concur its Sixth Plenum, an important meeting where party heavyweights will discuss and build consensus on forming a de facto shortlist for the next generation of political party leadership, to be installed in tardily 2022.
At this critical juncture, as Xi faces pregnant internal dissent, a muscular show of forcefulness seems to be a natural instrument to generate pro-incumbent, rally-around-the-flag sentiment.
Xi will likely remain supreme leader no affair what. Just such a nationalist display increases the chances his preferred proteges will be on the shortlist for other key positions simply beneath him.
TAIWAN KEEPS At-home AND CARRIES ON
Taiwan'south main opposition political party, the Kuomintang (KMT), has besides just elected a new leader afterward a party campaign focused primarily on Taiwan's policy towards Communist china.
The new chairman, Eric Chu, who ran on a United States-friendly strange policy platform, won a humble victory with 45 per cent of the votes in a tight, iv-manner race. Chu has since promised to exist a unifier who volition heed to other voices in his political party, and has pledged to renew stalled talks with Prc.
As such, Beijing has good reason to impose military pressure at this moment in the hope of nudging the KMT'southward new policy in China'south preferred direction.
Notably, while Beijing sent a full of 149 military jets into Taiwan's vicinity from Oct one to four, information technology reportedly sent only 1 on Oct v – the day the KMT's new leader assumed role.
Another reason why Taiwanese people are not very alarmed past the increasing number of Chinese warplanes is simply the constabulary of diminishing impact over fourth dimension.
People are used to this type of low-intensity Chinese military provocation. In fact, they been living in the near-constant presence of Chinese military and diplomatic pressure for over a quarter century.
In the run-up to Taiwan's offset direct presidential election in 1996, China's People's Liberation Ground forces conducted massive missile tests in the waters almost Taiwan, which strongly hinted at a possible invasion.
Since so, China has frequently staged military exercises around Taiwan, including flying military jets into the isle'southward vicinity. These are intended to underscore the risks of potential war and caution Taiwan against crossing Beijing's "red lines".
Chinese state television, for instance, once published a video of the Zhurihe grooming drills of 2015, which included footage of Chinese soldiers assaulting a building that bore a remarkable resemblance to Taiwan'south presidential office.
This long-standing Chinese strategy of brinkmanship theatre has been a double-edged sword. Information technology has encouraged pragmatism in Taiwan's pursuit of a stronger identity on the global phase, but information technology has as well alienated many Taiwanese from Beijing.
For instance, polls consistently show less than 10 per cent of Taiwanese favour unification with Prc, and a negligible 2.7 per cent cocky-place as primarily "Chinese" in their national identity.
Then why does Beijing withal resort to these alienating tactics, if unification is the ultimate goal?
BEIJING PLAYING THE LONG GAME
One explanation is Beijing places a college priority on deterring Taiwan's further motion towards independence than promoting unification, then it is willing to trade the latter for the former. In other words, Beijing may but not be every bit zealous most pursuing unification in the near-term.
Instead, keeping an eye on the long game, Beijing is willing to risk short- to medium-term costs in losing hearts and minds in Taiwan.
The promise is, in time, it can eventually regain the initiative. For this reason, being able to deter further movement towards independence may be sufficient to buy China much-needed time.
According to hawkish General Qiao Liang, the plan is "strategic patience".
This ways waiting until the cantankerous-strait military remainder tilts further in Prc's favour, using the war machine option only when it tin comprehensively overwhelm Taiwan and disincentivise or even deny American armed forces intervention.
And politically, Beijing aims to use the gravity of its economy to attract Taiwanese youth opinion leaders and slowly build dorsum Taiwanese support for eventual unification.
In this approach, economic incentives replace soft power, which Beijing is defective at the moment.
This is in line with Marxist logic, which is fundamental to Chinese communism. In this line of thinking, connections built on "infrastructure" (textile and economical common interests) are longer-lasting than connections based on "superstructure" (ideational or emotional alignment).
The claiming for Taiwan and like-minded societies in the West is both to prove the resiliency of their shared values and build a concerted voice that prevents China from mistaking Taiwan for a soft target.
Only through closer cooperation with like-minded democracies tin can Taiwan mitigate the risk of military escalation and ensure China's development will remain peaceful into the time to come. This is ultimately in the involvement not only of the region, just China itself.
Wen-Ti Sung is Sessional Lecturer at the Taiwan Studies Programme, Australian National Academy. This commentary showtime appeared on The Conversation.
Source: https://cnalifestyle.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/china-military-plane-taiwan-air-zone-war-unification-xi-jinping-295866
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